Sideline Scouting - Draft Metrics: Draft Tendencies

Draft Metrics: Draft Tendencies

By: Tony Villiotti

November 4, 2011

Draft Metrics recently took a look at the issue of whether NFL teams display any recurring tendencies in their NFL Draft selections. Three specific areas were examined:

Do teams show a preference for drafting certain positions? Do teams show a preference for drafting players from particular conferences? Do teams show a preference for (or stay away from) underclassmen entering the draft?

Each team's draft selections were compared to the "norm" to determine whether there were pronounced tendencies.

Not surprisingly, Draft Metrics did discover that there were quantifiable tendencies. It is not practical to determine, though, whether the identified tendencies are due to (1) strategic or philosophical reasons, (2) circumstances faced by that team (e.g., an ongoing and unfulfilled need at a particular position) or (3) chance. Such a determination would require extensive analysis of each team's needs and the mindset of their management team. That is far beyond the scope of Draft Metrics' capabilities.

To identify draft tendencies, Draft Metrics studied the draft choices of each NFL team for both the time period from 1992 through 2011 (for both all draft choices and choices in the first three rounds) and the time period from 2007 through 2011 (again for both all draft choices and choices in the first three rounds).

Position Tendencies

A summary of the draft choices made by all NFL teams for groups of positions and individual positions is as follows. The percentages indicate the percentage of drafted players that are included in each group. For example, in all rounds of the draft from 1992 through 2011 49.6 percent of the selections were offensive players.

Note: Offensive and defensive players don't always add to 100 percent due to the drafting of kickers and return specialists.

Appendix 1 hereto shows the same information for each of the NFL teams.

	1992-2011		2007-2011
	All Rounds	First 3 Rounds	All Rounds	First 3 Rounds
Offensive Players	49.6%	48.4%	48.6%	48.0%
Defensive Players	48.7%	50.8%	49.7%	52.0%
Linemen	33.1%	34.4%	32.1%	36.6%
Offensive	16.5%	16.1%	15.6%	15.6%
Defensive	16.6%	18.3%	16.5%	21.0%
Skill Positions	27.1%	27.2%	26.7%	27.7%
Quarterbacks	4.8	4.8%	4.8%	5.3%
Running Backs	9.7%	9.5%	9.4%	8.3%
Wide Receivers	12.6%	12.9%	12.5%	14.1%
Defensive Backs	18.9%	19.7%	20.0%	19.2%
Linebackers	13.2%	12.8%	13.1%	11.7%
Tight Ends	6.0%	5.1%	6.3%	4.7%

As mentioned earlier, it is clear that have been differences among the teams in the drafting of playing positions. Whether those differences were by design or circumstance is a matter of conjecture. Following is a summary of the highest and lowest teams in terms of percentage of players drafted for select position categories:

Offensive Players Drafted:

	1992-2011		1992-2011
	All Rounds		First 3 Rounds
Highest %	Denver Broncos	54.8%	Cleveland Browns	58.5%
	New York Jets	54.1%	Seattle Seahawks	57.9%
	Ravens/Redskins	53.8%	Washington Redskins	57.1%
Lowest %	Indianapolis Colts	42.2%	Buffalo Bills	40.6%
	New York Giants	43.5%	Minnesota Vikings	41.7%
	Minnesota Vikings	43.9%	Indianapolis Colts	42.6%

	2007-2011		2007-2011
	All Rounds		First 3 Rounds
Highest %	New York Jets	69.6%	Miami Dolphins	64.7%
	Baltimore Ravens	63.2%	Minnesota Vikings	63.6%
	Green Bay Packers	57.8%	Browns/Raiders	60.0%
Lowest %	Tampa Bay Bucs	37.5%	Tampa Bay Bucs	31.3%
	New Orleans Saints	37.9%	Houston Texans	33.3%
	Houston Texans	38.5%	San Diego Chargers	35.7%

Skill Position (QB, RB, WR) Players Drafted:

	1992-2011		1992-2011
	All Rounds		First 3 Rounds
Highest %	Baltimore Ravens	33.3%	Cleveland Browns	43.9%
	Cleveland Browns	32.5%	New York Giants	31.7%
	Green Bay Packers	31.5%	Tennessee Titans	31.3%
Lowest %	Indianapolis Colts	19.9%	Dallas Cowboys	16.1%
	Dallas Cowboys	20.0%	Jacksonville Jaguars	20.0%
	Houston Texans	24.1%	New Orleans Saints	20.8%

	2007-2011		2007-2011
	All Rounds		First 3 Rounds
Highest %	New York Jets	47.8%	Minnesota Vikings	45.5%
	Baltimore Ravens	36.8%	Miami Dolphins	41.2%
	Minnesota Vikings	36.1%	Browns/Lions	40.0%
Lowest %	Tennessee Titans	15.4%	Indianapolis Colts	13.3%
	New Orleans Saints	17.2%	New Orleans Saints	15.4%
	Atlanta Falcons	18.6%	Jacksonville Jaguars	15.4%

Offensive and Defensive Linemen Drafted:

	1992-2011		1992-2011
	All Rounds		First 3 Rounds
Highest %	Carolina Panthers	37.0%	Houston Texans	45.5%
	Seattle Seahawks	36.5%	Carolina Panthers	42.1%
	Cardinals/Dolphins	36.1%	Oakland Raiders	41.0%
Lowest %	Cleveland Browns	28.0%	San Diego Chargers	23.0%
	Washington Redskins	29.4%	Cincinnati Bengals	25.0%
	New York Giants	29.9%	Cleveland Browns	26.8%

	2007-2011		2007-2011
	All Rounds		First 3 Rounds
Highest %	Indianapolis Colts	41.0%	Jacksonville Jaguars	61.5%
	Jacksonville Jaguars	38.9%	Indianapolis Colts	53.3%
	Carolina Panthers	38.1%	Several Teams	50.0%
Lowest %	Dallas Cowboys	20.0%	Minnesota Vikings	9.1%
	San Diego Chargers	21.2%	San Diego Chargers	14.3%
	New York Giants	23.1%	New England Patriots	19.0%

When looking at the full 20-year study period, NFL teams can be grouped into seven categories based on their basic draft tendencies:

• Balanced (49ers, Bengals, Bucs, Cardinals, Raiders)
• Offensive Slant (Chargers, Redskins, Steelers)
• Defensive Slant (Colts, Cowboys, Falcons, Jaguars, Lions, Texans, Titans, Vikings)
• Defense Early, Offense Late (Bills, Broncos, Chiefs, Eagles, Jets, Packers, Panthers, Saints)
• Offense Early, Defense Late (Bears, Browns, Giants)
• Balanced Early, Offense Late (Patriots, Ravens)
• Offense Early, Balanced Late (Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks)

Following are comments on the tendencies of each NFL team.

Arizona Cardinals
Offense vs. Defense	Pretty balanced, but heavy on defense in the early rounds in the last five years
Most Significant Tendency	Drafted fewer defensive backs, both overall and early
Another Significant Tendency	Fairly heavy preference for defensive linemen; drafted very few offensive linemen in last five years

Atlanta Falcons
Offense vs. Defense	Lean toward defense, heavily in the last five years
Most Significant Tendency	Heavy on defensive backs early in the draft
Another Significant Tendency	Have stayed away from drafting defensive linemen early in the draft

Baltimore Ravens
Offense vs. Defense	Heavy lean to drafting offense, especially over the last five years and late in the draft over the 20-year period
Most Significant Tendency	Load up on skill positions in later rounds, about average number taken early
Another Significant Tendency	Tend to take fewer defensive backs, both overall and early, than the norm

Buffalo Bills
Offense vs. Defense	Balanced overall, but heavy on defense in early rounds and all rounds in the last five years
Most Significant Tendency	Take defensive linemen early
Another Significant Tendency	Avoid offensive line early

Carolina Panthers
Offense vs. Defense	Pretty balanced overall, tilt to defense early in the draft
Most Significant Tendency	Like defensive linemen early and late
Another Significant Tendency	Fewer defensive backs early than most teams

Chicago Bears
Offense vs. Defense	Evenly balanced
Most Significant Tendency	Draft offensive and defensive linemen early
Another Significant Tendency	Avoid linebackers early in the draft

Cincinnati Bengals
Offense vs. Defense	Evenly balanced
Most Significant Tendency	Stay away from offensive and defensive linemen early in the draft
Another Significant Tendency	Draft skill positions and linebackers early in the draft

Cleveland Browns
Offense vs. Defense	Focus on offense early, defense late
Most Significant Tendency	Tend to grab skill positions early, especially wide receivers
Another Significant Tendency	Avoid linebackers early, none drafted in top three rounds in the last five years

Dallas Cowboys
Offense vs. Defense	Slight defensive preference overall, but pretty balanced in last five years
Most Significant Tendency	Stay away from skill positions early; fewest number of QBs drafted in 20-year period
Another Significant Tendency	Heavy on offensive linemen

Denver Broncos
Offense vs. Defense	Heavy on offense overall, but focus on defense early (though not so much in last few years)
Most Significant Tendency	Tendencies of 20-yr. period and last five years are completely different. Full 20 years, it would be taking DBs early; last five years would be taking OL both early and late
Another Significant Tendency	Lots of skill position players overall in 20-year period; relatively few skill position players in last few years

Detroit Lions
Offense vs. Defense	Lean toward defense, very balanced last five years
Most Significant Tendency	Take defensive linemen early
Another Significant Tendency	Heavy on linebackers, not so much over the last five years

Green Bay Packers
Offense vs. Defense	Lean toward offense overall, but favor defense early in the draft
Most Significant Tendency	Take defensive backs early, not so much later
Another Significant Tendency	Take offensive linemen later in the draft

Houston Texans
Offense vs. Defense	Definite slant to drafting defense
Most Significant Tendency	Take more defensive backs than the norm, particularly early
Another Significant Tendency	Fewer skill position players than the norm

Indianapolis Colts
Offense vs. Defense	Focus on defense
Most Significant Tendency	Stay away from drafting many skilled position players
Another Significant Tendency	Heavy focus on offensive and defensive linemen in the last five years; also take defensive backs early

Jacksonville Jaguars
Offense vs. Defense	Focus on defense
Most Significant Tendency	Stay away from skill positions early, take them later
Another Significant Tendency	Like offensive and defensive linemen early

Kansas City Chiefs
Offense vs. Defense	Draft defense early and offense late
Most Significant Tendency	Stay away from linebackers both early and late, none drafted in top three rounds in last five years
Another Significant Tendency	Heavy drafters of defensive linemen

Miami Dolphins
Offense vs. Defense	Focus on offense early, pretty balanced thereafter
Most Significant Tendency	Heavy on offensive linemen
Another Significant Tendency	Like skill positions early

Minnesota Vikings
Offense vs. Defense	Tend to take defense overall, but switched to offense in the last five years
Most Significant Tendency	More defensive linemen and defensive backs early in the draft over full 20 years
Another Significant Tendency	Very heavy drafting of skill position players over the last five years

New England Patriots
Offense vs. Defense	Lean toward offense overall but more balanced in early rounds; more balanced in last five years
Most Significant Tendency	Like defensive backs early
Another Significant Tendency	Light on defensive linemen both early and overall; more offensive linemen late

New Orleans Saints
Offense vs. Defense	Draft defense early, offense late; though defense has been major focus in last five years
Most Significant Tendency	Stay away from skill positions; no QBs have been taken in the first three rounds in the last 20 years
Another Significant Tendency	Tend to take more offensive linemen, both early and overall, than the norm

New York Giants
Offense vs. Defense	Lean toward defense, but favor offense early in the draft
Most Significant Tendency	Like skill positions, especially wide receivers, early in the draft
Another Significant Tendency	Stay away from linebackers and take defensive backs early

New York Jets
Offense vs. Defense	Defense early, offense late
Most Significant Tendency	Stay away from skill positions early, take them later
Another Significant Tendency	Draft linebackers early, ignore them later

Oakland Raiders
Offense vs. Defense	Pretty balanced overall, more offense in the last five years
Most Significant Tendency	Take offensive linemen early
Another Significant Tendency	Avoid linebackers early

Philadelphia Eagles
Offense vs. Defense	Focus on defense early, more offense later
Most Significant Tendency	Heavy on defensive linemen early in the draft
Another Significant Tendency	Like offensive linemen and linebackers later in the draft

Pittsburgh Steelers
Offense vs. Defense	Slight tendency toward offense, but very balanced over the last five years
Most Significant Tendency	Tend to take fewer defensive linemen early than is the norm
Another Significant Tendency	Like linebackers early and late

San Diego Chargers
Offense vs. Defense	Offensive preference overall, but shifted to defense in last five years
Most Significant Tendency	Stay away from drafting defensive linemen
Another Significant Tendency	Draft defensive backs and linebackers early

San Francisco 49ers
Offense vs. Defense	Evenly balanced
Most Significant Tendency	Draft offensive and defensive linemen early
Another Significant Tendency	Stay away from offensive linemen later in the draft

Seattle Seahawks
Offense vs. Defense	Pretty evenly balanced overall, but thend to take offense early
Most Significant Tendency	Take offensive linemen early and late
Another Significant Tendency	Stay away from linebackers early but do take them later

St. Louis Rams
Offense vs. Defense	Lean toward offense but balanced early; last five years have been offense early and defense late
Most Significant Tendency	Stay away from linebackers early
Another Significant Tendency	Avoid offensive linemen early then take later, though that has reversed in the last five years

Tampa Bay Bucs
Offense vs. Defense	Pretty balanced overall, but heavy on defense in the past five years
Most Significant Tendency	Draft defensive linemen early, especially in last five years
Another Significant Tendency	Draft fewer offensive linemen than most teams

Tennessee Titans
Offense vs. Defense	Lean to drafting defense
Most Significant Tendency	Take more defensive linemen than the norm, especially early
Another Significant Tendency	Tend to stay away from offensive linemen; none taken in the top three rounds in the last five years and the lowest percentage overall in the last 20 years

Washington Redskins
Offense vs. Defense	Heavy lean to drafting offense
Most Significant Tendency	Take skill positions early, especially wide receivers
Another Significant Tendency	Take fewer defensive linemen, though that has reversed in early rounds during last five years

College Tendencies

For purposes of this analysis Draft Metrics has divided colleges into three groups:

• Conferences that are automatic BCS qualifiers
• BCS conferences that are not automatic BCS qualifiers (e.g., the MAC, the WAC, etc.)
• All non-BCS schools (includes Football Champion Series schools, Division II, Division III, etc.)

It should be noted that for purposes of this analysis college are included in the conference in which they are playing during the 2011 season. The breakdown of the percentage of all draftees by these categories is as follows:

	1992-2011		2007-2011
	All Rounds	First 3 Rounds	All Rounds	First 3 Rounds
BCS Automatic Qualifiers
SEC	15.0%	18.1%	15.7%	19.8%
Big Ten	14.8%	16.4%	13.4%	15.0%
Big 12	8.5%	9.2%	9.2%	10.3%
Atlantic Coast	13.9%	16.6%	12.8%	14.6%
Pac 12	14.5%	15.8%	13.8%	15.4%
Big East	5.3%	4.8%	8.0%	5.9%
All BCS AQ	72.0%	80.9%	73.0%	81.0%
Other BCS Conf.	16.2%	13.2%	16.9%	14.6%
All Other	11.9%	5.9%	10.1%	4.5%

A few points in this table are worth highlighting:

• The BCS Automatic Qualifier Conferences (BCSAQ) are dominant as a source of draft talent
• This dominance is even more pronounced in the early rounds of the draft
• The Big 12 and the Big East, especially the Big East, are clearly the "junior partners" in the BCSAQ as far as providing talent -- This will become even more
pronounced as the Big East disassembles
• The recent trend is for the BCSAQ colleges to become even more dominant at the expense of the "All Other" category
• Within the BCSAQ, the SEC, Big 12 and Big East are trending up with the Big 10, ACC and Pac 12 trending

When looking at the information by NFL team, there are significant differences in the source of their talent. Appendix 2 presents information for each NFL team. As with the position tendencies, it is difficult to explain the reasons for the tendencies and there is even another layer or two of variables added as NFL teams may have better or worse relationships with coaches from a particular conference or more or less confidence in scouts that cover a particular region of the country.

A summary of tendencies for each NFL team is shown below. First, though, here are a couple of observations:

• The Jaguars and Chargers are far more likely to draft small college players, both early and late, than other NFL teams
• The Packers and Raiders also draft more than their share of small college players but those choices typically occur later in the draft
• The Saints have drafted no small college players in the first three rounds of the draft over the past 20 years
• Four teams (Chargers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Giants) have drafted twice the average percentage of small college players in the first three rounds of the draft over
the 20-year period
• The Bucs and Steelers have had the greatest tendency to draft BCSAQ players in the first three rounds of the draft over the past 20 years
• More than 30 percent of the Jets selections over the past 20 years in the first three rounds have been from the Big 10, the greatest conference tendency of any
NFL team

Following is the earlier mentioned chart that covers the 20-year study period. The nomenclature used was is follows:

• Average ++            Well above the average
• Average +              Somewhat above the average
• Average -               Somewhat below the average
• Average --              Well below the average

		BCSAQ	Favorite	BCS Other	Other Schools
Arizona Cardinals	Rds. 1-7	Average +	SEC	Average --	Average +
	Rds. 1-3	Average ++	SEC/ACC	Average --	Average -
Atlanta Falcons	Rds. 1-7	Average	SEC	Average -	Average +
	Rds. 1-3	Average	SEC	Average -	Average +
Baltimore Ravens	Rds. 1-7	Average	ACC/Pac-10	Average	Average
	Rds. 1-3	Average +	Pac-10	Average -	Average
Buffalo Bills	Rds. 1-7	Average -	Big 10	Average +	Average +
	Rds. 1-3	Average +	Big 10/ACC	Average	Average -
Carolina Panthers	Rds. 1-7	Average +	Pac-10	Average --	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average	SEC/Pac-10	Average	Average +
Chicago Bears	Rds. 1-7	Average	Big 10/Pac-10	Average +	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average -	Pac-10	Average ++	Average
Cincinnati Bengals	Rds. 1-7	Average -	SEC	Average ++	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average ++	SEC	Average	Average --
Cleveland Browns	Rds. 1-7	Average ++	ACC	Average -	Average --
	Rds. 1-3	Average	ACC	Average ++	Average --
Dallas Cowboys	Rds. 1-7	Average -	SEC	Average	Average +
	Rds. 1-3	Average --	SEC	Average +	Average ++
Denver Broncos	Rds. 1-7	Average +	SEC	Average +	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average	SEC/Big 12	Average +	Average -
Detroit Lions	Rds. 1-7	Average -	Big 10/Pac-10	Average	Average +
	Rds. 1-3	Average +	Big 10	Average -	Average -
Green Bay Packers	Rds. 1-7	Average --	SEC	Average ++	Average +
	Rds. 1-3	Average	ACC	Average -	Average +
Houston Texans	Rds. 1-7	Average +	ACC	Average +	Average --
	Rds. 1-3	Average	ACC	Average --	Average ++
Indianapolis Colts	Rds. 1-7	Average +	Big 10	Average	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average	Big 10	Average +	Average -
Jacksonville Jaguars	Rds. 1-7	Average --	SEC	Average +	Average ++
	Rds. 1-3	Average --	SEC	Average ++	Average ++
Kansas City Chiefs	Rds. 1-7	Average	Pac-10	Average +	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average ++	SEC/ACC	Average --	Average --
Miami Dolphins	Rds. 1-7	Average -	SEC	Average +	Average
	Rds. 1-3	Average +	SEC	Average	Average --
Minnesota Vikings	Rds. 1-7	Average -	ACC	Average	Average ++
	Rds. 1-3	Average -	SEC/ACC	Average +	Average
New England Patriots	Rds. 1-7	Average	SEC	Average +	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average +	SEC	Average	Average -
New Orleans Saints	Rds. 1-7	Average +	Big 10	Average -	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average +	Big 10	Average +	Average --
New York Giants	Rds. 1-7	Average	Big 10	Average -	Average +
	Rds. 1-3	Average -	ACC	Average	Average ++
New York Jets	Rds. 1-7	Average	Big 10	Average -	Average
	Rds. 1-3	Average	Big 10	Average	Average +
Oakland Raiders	Rds. 1-7	Average -	Pac-10	Average +	Average +
	Rds. 1-3	Average -	Pac-10	Average +	Average -
Philadelphia Eagles	Rds. 1-7	Average +	Pac-10	Average -	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average -	SEC/ACC/Pac-10	Average +	Average ++
Pittsburgh Steelers	Rds. 1-7	Average +	Big 10	Average	Average --
	Rds. 1-3	Average ++	Pac-10	Average --	Average -
San Diego Chargers	Rds. 1-7	Average --	ACC	Average -	Average ++
	Rds. 1-3	Average --	Big 10/ACC	Average +	Average ++
San Francisco 49ers	Rds. 1-7	Average +	Pac-10	Average -	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average ++	ACC/Pac-10	Average --	Average -
Seattle Seahawks	Rds. 1-7	Average ++	SEC/Pac-10	Average -	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average +	SEC/Pac-10	Average	Average --
St. Louis Rams	Rds. 1-7	Average	Big 10	Average	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average +	Big 10	Average -	Average -
Tampa Bay Bucs	Rds. 1-7	Average ++	ACC/SEC	Average --	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average ++	SEC	Average -	Average --
Tennessee Titans	Rds. 1-7	Average	SEC	Average	Average
	Rds. 1-3	Average	SEC	Average	Average +
Washington Redskins	Rds. 1-7	Average	Pac-10	Average +	Average -
	Rds. 1-3	Average -	Big 10	Average +	Average

Underclassmen Tendency

The final tendency studied by Draft Metrics was whether teams tended to favor or avoid underclassmen that opted for the draft. A total of 577 underclassmen were drafted during the 20-year study period, with 196 coming in the last five drafts. The following chart shows the breakdown by round selected.

	1992-2011			2007-2011
	# Picks	% UC	% All	# Picks	% UC	% All
1st Round	229	39.7%	36.9%	72	36.7%	45.3%
2nd Round	116	20.1%	18.4%	48	24.5%	29.6%
3rd Round	81	14.0%	12.1%	26	13.3%	15.0%
4th Round	62	10.7%	8.9%	22	11.2%	12.4%
5th Round	37	6.4%	5.4%	12	6.1%	6.8%
6th Round	26	4.5%	3.5%	9	4.6%	4.8%
7th Round+	26	4.5%	2.5%	7	3.6%	3.0%
All	577		11.4%	196		15.4%

While there were some differences by team, it did not appear that any NFL teams really avoid drafting underclassmen, nor did any have a tendency to "overdraft" underclassmen. Ignoring the expansion teams, the Jets and Redskins drafted the fewest with 11 each, both drafting seven in the first round. The Bengals with 31 selected the most underclassmen. The Raiders with 12 selected the most underclassmen in the 1st round.

A summary by NFL teams is as follows:

	1992-2011		2007-2011
	1st Round	All Rounds	1st Round	All Rounds
Arizona Cardinals	5	16	2	5
Atlanta Falcons	6	14	2	6
Baltimore Ravens	8	15	0	4
Buffalo Bills	7	18	3	6
Carolina Panthers	8	18	3	9
Chicago Bears	8	20	1	5
Cincinnati Bengals	10	31	3	9
Cleveland Browns	6	16	1	5
Dallas Cowboys	4	17	3	6
Denver Broncos	7	16	4	6
Detroit Lions	9	19	4	7
Green Bay Packers	5	18	1	5
Houston Texans	4	10	2	5
Indianapolis Colts	7	12	2	4
Jacksonville Jaguars	4	13	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	6	18	3	8
Miami Dolphins	6	16	2	6
Minnesota Vikings	12	28	1	8
New England Patriots	9	21	1	6
New Orleans Saints	6	17	2	5
New York Giants	6	15	3	9
New York Jets	7	11	4	6
Oakland Raiders	12	21	4	8
Philadelphia Eagles	6	20	1	6
Pittsburgh Steelers	8	21	3	7
San Diego Chargers	5	13	2	5
San Francisco 49ers	9	24	3	9
Seattle Seahawks	8	21	1	3
St. Louis Rams	9	22	2	3
Tampa Bay Bucs	9	20	3	8
Tennessee Titans	6	25	2	11
Washington Redskins	7	11	0	2

Appendix 1: Percentage of Draftees by Position -- (click here)
Appendix 2: Percentage of Draftees by Conference -- (click here)

Note: This article was originally published on Tony Villiotti's website, DraftMetrics.com and is being reprinted here with the permission of the author. Draft Metrics was established in 2010 but its roots were planted long before. Villiotti's obsession with the NFL Draft began in 1969. Over the years, his interest shifted from predicting draft choices to trying to better understand the draft's importance by examining its eventual outcomes.